Up to 6,800 new inpatient beds may be needed by 2040, report finds

Public acute hospitals will need to increase inpatient bed capacity by between 40% and 60% by 2040, according to a new report.

A continued increase in population, particularly at older ages, will drive the increased demand, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute publication on Wednesday.

Ireland’s population is projected to increase from 5.3 million in 2023 to between 5.9-6.3 million by 2040, with the range reflecting differing assumptions on future migration trends.

The number of people aged 65 years and over will increase from 1 in 7 of the population in 2023 to 1 in 5 by 2040.

This age group are particularly high users of hospital services, accounting for over 60% of inpatient bed days in 2023.

The Department of Health-funded research projects that emergency department attendances will grow from 1.6 million to more than two million by 2040.

Outpatient department attendances are projected to grow from 4.6 million in 2023, to between 5.5 and 5.9 million by 2040.

Day patient discharges are projected to grow from 1.2 million in 2023, to between 1.5 and 1.6 million.

Inpatient discharges are projected to grow from 650,000 to up to 900,000.

Inpatient bed days are projected to increase from 3.9 million in 2023, to between 5.1 and 6.0 million in 2040.

The ESRI research states that there will be a requirements for an additional 650 to 950 day patient beds by 2040 – a growth of between 25-37%.

In addition, it projects a requirement for between 4,400 to 6,800 inpatient beds – an increase of between 40% and 60%.

Even at the lower end of the projections, the report highlights the need for substantial additional capacity to meet increases in demand for hospital services by 2040.

The analysis shows how different policy choices like reducing inpatient length of stay and waiting list management can alter the projections.

Dr Aoife Brick, senior research officer at the ESRI and lead author of the report, said: “Our findings highlight significant future growth in demand for public acute hospital services, driven primarily by population growth and ageing. The report offers policymakers evidence on the scale of service expansion needed to meet future demand.”

Minister for Health, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill welcomed the review and said: “This evidence base is crucial for future planning, ensuring we have the facilities to provide the best care to patients.

“Increasing bed numbers and the necessary resources and workforce requires careful long-term planning.”

The Programme for Government has committed to delivering thousands more beds through the acute bed capacity expansion plan, new surgical hubs and elective treatment centres.